Everyone’s hoping 2009 will be a better year than 2008. But the economy is slowing down, and everyone is talking about the Great Depression. In Washington DC, members of Congress, with the new Obama administration, are trying to figure out what they can do to turn things around before we get that low.
Many economists believe that housing can lead the way towards recovery.
On this week’s show we interviewed Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
Here’s a transcript of the interview:
Gil: Why housing? Why do so many economists believe real estate will guide us out of the economic slowdown?
Lawrence: Housing is the answer, immediate action is key. Historically, housing has always lifted our economy out of slumps. But it has to be quick. Immediate action is key. At its core, the current crisis is the result of housing and mortgage market problems. Stabilizing real estate markets will naturally be the core of solving the economic crisis. That’s why the NAR has offered plan for Unlocking the Economy. It’s a vital part—really, it has to be the core—of any stimulus effort Congress passes early this session. Without calming jittery real estate markets, other areas of the economy can’t grow with any confidence.
Gil: What can Washington do to stabilize housing markets? Congress can’t just go and pay cash to everyone who’s lost money on a home.
Lawrence: Congress can make home buying easier by removing unnecessary roadblocks. Right now there’s a $7500 tax credit available for qualified, first-time homebuyers. That’s a great help to people looking to buy…but it doesn’t go far enough!
Elements of the Stimulus package passed by the Senate:
- A $15,000 tax credit.
- Doubles the current $7500 credit… This is already in effect, but it doesn’t go far enough.
- Right now, every first-time homebuyer gets a $7500 tax credit.
- But they don’t get the money until they file their taxes.
- They also have to pay it back within 15 years.
- The tax credit is a great start, perfect for a strong economy
- But in today’s downturn, Congress needs to do a lot more.
- We believe ALL home buyers – not just first timers, should get the credit.
- We believe the repayment requirement should be eliminated.
- Because first time buyers need help, but so does everyone.
- Especially in today’s economy.
Gil: What about people buying their second or third home? Should someone get this tax credit for their vacation home in Maine?
Lawrence: We have to stimulate sales. These tax credits as they stand are not used enough. The more the tax credit is used, the more effective it will be. An increasing sale rate will boost the housing market, lifting a lot of people up and helping the whole economy get started. The tax credit alone isn’t enough though. We have to get mortgages rolling. Too many qualified home buyers are being “put on hold” or denied altogether. If a buyer is qualified, with adequate income, credit scores and cash reserves, they should get a mortgage on a home that appraises for what they can afford. We need to relax the mortgage approval process.
Gil: But relaxing the mortgage approval process is partially to blame for causing the economic crisis we’re in now.
Lawrence: That’s true. But the problem was that people who couldn’t qualify for mortgages were getting them. Now, almost nobody is getting them. The pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. The underwriting requirements have increased, and the credit score requirements are too high. We believe in a reasonable approach. Give loans to qualified buyers, no exceptions.
Gil: Well the problem as I understand it is that many mortgage companies can’t make loans, even to qualified buyers, because of the size of the mortgage.
Lawrence: We need to raise loan limits so those lenders can give loans. The truth is, many Americans live in markets in which everyday homes cost nearly a million dollars. Mortgage loan limits dropped in the end of 2008, making these homes out of reach for many buyers. That helped stagnate markets. Now, these aren’t luxury homes. They’re everyday family homes. Homebuyers in those markets need higher loan limits—not drastically higher, just back up the limits they were at before the downturn.
Gil: So Obama has just taken office. He’s getting advice from all sides. What’s your advice?
Lawrence: Follow the NAR’s plan for Unlocking the Economy. Our advice for Obama would be to keep America’s 75 million homeowners, and the millions of potential home buyers, at the forefront of any economy recovery plan. Real estate can help bring the nation out of this recession. We need to put real estate on the front burner.