This week, we have some really encouraging news for just about everyone. The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® has just released its Metro area existing homes and price report for the last quarter of 2009, and it shows strong gains, both from last summer and from the last quarter of 2008. Compared to last summer, sales in the 4th quarter increased in 48 states as well as in DC, and 32 of those states enjoyed double-digit increases. The adjusted annual rate of those home sales was 14 percent higher than in the third quarter.
The year-to-year results are even more exciting – 49 states and the District of Columbia saw sales grow – 46 of them by double digits – and the number of homes sold grew by 27 percent from the last quarter of 2008 to 2009. Now, before we discuss why we’ve seen this growth, we should point out that the comparison looks good in part because the last quarter of 2008 was frankly an economic disaster, with major banks failing, Wall Street crashing and the government struggling to launch its rescue programs.
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But when we flash forward a year, we can see one of those rescues having a major impact on the recovery of the real estate market. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, says the government’s first-time home buyer credit was THE dominant factor in the growth we saw in home sales in the last quarter of last year, combined with record low mortgage interest rates. The average rate for a 30-year conventional fixed rate loan fell nearly a full point in the 4th quarter to just under 5 percent compared to a year ago.
Now – while the number of home sales has increased virtually everywhere, home PRICES are much more of a mixed bag. 44 percent of the Metro areas in the survey reported higher median prices in the last quarter, compared with a year ago. The national median price for a home is 173-thousand dollars – 4 percent less than the last quarter of 2008. But economist Yun says even that news has a silver lining – it’s the smallest quarterly decline in over two years, and Yun says it shows a broad stabilization in home prices.
Taking a quick look at sales by region:
Home sales in the Northeast rose 11 percent compared to the summer, and by a third compared to a year ago. Median prices did fall by 6 percent in the year-to-year comparison, but the swings were smaller in areas with lower priced homes.
In the Midwest, sales enjoyed a 15 percent increase from the third quarter, and a 30 percent jump from a year ago. And median prices managed a 1 percent year-to-year increase, as well. The Midwest enjoyed the most growth in prices, but that news was balanced by big challenges in unemployment in many markets.
Looking South, the number of homes sold in the last quarter outpaced the third quarter by 14 percent, and was 28 percent higher than a year earlier. Median prices were off 2 and a half percent from 2008.
And finally – out West, home sales were up 16 percent from the summer, and 18 percent higher than a year ago. Prices are still a challenge – with the median falling 9 percent year-to-year.